22 replies to this topic

[Kelly]

Reflecting La Nina predictions…

California Department of Water Resources measurement of current vs. past precipitation of 8 key northern water regions – then divided by 8 to get an average. The chart is called the eight-station index and has been recording since 1920. Current year (12/22/20) is blue line in lower left corner.
 8-Station-Dec-2020.jpg (100.41K)
Number of downloads: 19

Perhaps a ski area marketing gift – the GFS weather model is forecasting some white stuff for Christmas Day in Lake Tahoe area.

[Kelly]

Fall Winter 2021 ENSO Forecast
Weak La Nina
From NOAA Climate

Quote

…La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern—has returned to the tropical Pacific this month, and there's an 87% chance it will last through the Northern Hemisphere winter…

87% means there is a strong correlation with the 5 tracking indexes.
Strong correlation to 70-71, 95-95, 07-08 winters

Pete Parsons Northwest Overview:
https://www.youtube....h?v=l1dxRitkcsE

see Post #18 for more La Nina information
My forecast…again going out on a limb I am forecasting better early season skiing at Whistler rather than Mammoth…but Mammoth might see snow next week.

[Kelly]

2022 2023 Season

We are still in mild La Nina.
3 seasons in La Nina is somewhat rare so there is a high likelihood that this will not last and ENSO is to go to Neutral mid to late winter – chart below.
 ENSO-2022-23.jpg (100.48K)
Number of downloads: 14

A quotes from NOAA…
“The outlook (precipitation) does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.”
“Mild La Nina forecasts are the least accurate of the ENSO forecasts”

Precipitation probabilities chart for 2022-23
 Precip-2022-23.jpg (99.76K)
Number of downloads: 18

Somewhat matching years with mild La Nina’s
1998-99
2007-08
2010-11

Use same links shown above posts