Early Winter Weather Prediction
With both ENSO and PDO in continued warm phases* the prediction accuracy is quite high. This chart shows a short 3 year history with both oscillations becoming “in-phase” in June 2015.
PDO-ENSO-2012-2015-for-web.jpg (99.42K)
Number of downloads: 31
The early (Nov-Jan) NOAA winter weather prediction (a combination of ENSO and PDO) for the west coast comes in two parts – temperature and precipitation.
3 Month west coast temperature forecast
ENSO-NOAA-temp.jpg (99.95K)
Number of downloads: 71
3 month west coast precipitation forecast
ENSO-NOAA-precip.jpg (100.54K)
Number of downloads: 69
Notice the precipitation transition between California and Oregon is not an exact zone – EC = Equal Chance (or were not sure…). For Oregon and Washington skiers the combination of maps is quite disheartening by showing warmer and dryer conditions for the next 3 months.
ENSO-2015-transistion.jpg (97.75K)
Number of downloads: 44
NOAA 3 month map link: http://www.cpc.ncep....onal.php?lead=1
University of Washington’s forecasts also indicate a very lean snow year when considering ENSO and the PDO.
ENSO-UW-2015.jpg (99.05K)
Number of downloads: 44
Revisiting Oregon’s Mt. Hood Meadows marketing forecast – It’s helpful to look at another unbiased forecast entity. Here is Oregon’s Department of Agriculture and Forestry projections for temperature and precipitation for December.
ENSO-Ore-dec-2015.jpg (96.74K)
Number of downloads: 45
Unfortunately for northwest skiers it mirrors the other forecasts, but it does give a hint that snowfall in the higher elevations
could be better than what occurred last year.
Oregon Agriculture Service precipitation link:
http://www.oregon.go...es/Weather.aspx
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*First topic footnote - ENSO can be considered a slow moving blob of slightly different sea temperature that sloshes back and forth in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean**. The “Nino” label was given as the change is most notable around Christmas time… that is better known as “Christ’s child or young boy” in Spanish speaking countries of South America.
Sea temperature is a big driver of
global jet streams that ultimately impact North America’s weather.
The PDO has the same historical implications as ENSO – both can be traced by tree rings to the 1600s. PDO was “discovered” in 1997 by a scientist studying salmon runs in the Pacific Northwest.
Forecasting snow by just looking at the entwinement of PDO/ENSO indexes should be considered a sketchy proposition, however some accuracy can occur when each have corresponding strong phases…such as this year.
University of Washington State Climatologist summation
…El Niño and La Niña patterns are only valid during years in which ENSO and PDO extremes are "in phase"…
For students of history, two very dry years in the Northwest with each “in-phase” occurred in 1977-78.
PDO-ENSO-2012-2015-for-web.jpg (99.42K)
Number of downloads: 31
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**This is a simplified explanation, the forecast is made from many indexes such as: currents, low pressure systems, wind direction, surface temperature, other sea depth temperatures…and other connections (teleconnection) such as mid Atlantic and Russian oscillations…
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Links:
Simple chart splitting California high and low precip years (scroll mid page):
http://www.el-nino.com/
20 other indexes tracked by NOAA:
http://www.esrl.noaa...teindices/list/
Weekly NOAA ENSO forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep..../enso_advisory/
Combination Forecast delivered by NOAA for each month for ENSO/ PDO:
http://www.cpc.ncep....nal.php?lead=01
North Carolina State Climate Office – ENSO PDO forecast implications:
https://climate.ncsu...tterns/PDO.html
University of Washington PDO-ENSO overview:
http://cses.washingt.../aboutpdo.shtml
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